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The Blogosphere Plateau

Analysts at the Gartner research firm are predicting that the rise of blogs will plateau next year.

The research, as summarized by Tech Trends, speaks of blogs in general and not political blogs, which makes sense considering that 2008 is a presidential election year and will feature neither an incumbent nor a vice president seeking a promotion. Time magazine also just named the symbolic "you" as "person of the year," in part because of the blogging trend.

But the political blogosphere is nearing a peak as well. I predict that it will come in 2009, after the next presidential election.

Political blogs will be a powerful force during the 2007-2008 election cycle and may even make or break the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees. If bloggers choose, they also could be a factor in picking an "alternative" Unity '08 ticket or vaulting some heretofore unknown third-party movement(s) into political prominence.

The next two years, however, will be the heyday for political blogs. While they will remain influential after that and new ones will continue to go online and gain popularity, their novelty will wane, the growth curve will level, and the blogs quickly will become an unheralded part of a newly merged media/political/activist landscape. The new media revolution will continue, but blogs will become a less prominent part of it.

I have absolutely no research to support that belief; it's just a bold, from-the-gut prediction by a guy who has been watching the blogosphere for years. That prediction may come back to haunt me, but there you have it.

Posted by Danny | 01:29 PM

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